Description: What is going on with the exchange rate, anyway? In 2002, $1 U.S. bought $C 1.60, and now in May 2005 you only get $C 1.25—that’s 20 percent less! Where’s it going next? One way to answer that question is with a time series model.

Description: Chairperson’s column discussing the state of the world today and how that influences investment strategies and describes to seminars the section sponsored to keep members apprised of changes.

Description: In 2003, the American Academy of Actuaries Life Capital Adequacy Subcommittee LCAS published a set of 10,000 stochastic scenarios that was intended to be used to support the publication, “Recommended Approach for Setting Regulatory Risk-Based Capital Requirements for Variable Products with Guarantees Excluding Index Guarantees.” The primary purpose of this article is to illustrate statistical measures that can be used to evaluate stochastic simulations.

Description: As stochastic modeling has evolved, it has divided down two paths—real-world and risk-neutral. This article discusses this division and shows how these paths may be re-united through the use of deflators.

Description: The author notes “a telescope and a kaleidoscope both provide a view but that is where the similarities end. A telescope shows us an actual view whereas a kaleidoscope creates a view from broken pieces of glass. This article will analyze which analogy is closer to the stochastic modeling of interest rate or stock market projections.”

Description: Recaps the evolution of VA products and hedging programs. Reflects on strategic considerations that contributed to relative performance in this market.

Description: The article focuses on the need to develop a strategy for investing surplus resulting from the buildup of significant excess capital. The author discusses three principles on which a company can base its surplus investment strategy, including the risk/return preference of the client, attribution of surplus to the products and an investment strategy based on all company risks.

Description: The author uses a generalized asset risk model to explore C1 risk, drawing heavily from investment theory and pension fund management, applying these to an insurance general account. This article has two parts the first part, contained in this issue of Risk and Reward, describes the basic C1 model itself. The second part, which will be published in the next issue of Risks and Rewards, discusses various implications of the basic C1 model, especially related to managing the company’s investment portfolio.

Description: Proposes a benchmark consisting of TIPs and deferred income annuities for retirement asset allocation decisions.

Description: Is Risk/Return a sound tool for decision-making? No. It is not consistent, not objective, distorts decision and degrades governance. Why? What shall we do then?